The Aptos token (APT) has seen its price fall by nearly 27% over the past month, mirroring broader market weakness, despite a significant increase in its on-chain activity.
Network Use is Up, But Price is Down
- Active Addresses Soar: The number of monthly Active Addresses on the Aptos network more than doubled, jumping from around 750K to a stable level near 1.7 million, indicating a surge in network participation.
- Trading Activity Rises: This growth is tied to higher network use and a 62% jump in perpetual trading volume within a week, based on DefiLlama data.
- Price Disconnect: However, this booming activity has not translated into a price increase, and Aptos's Total Value Locked (TVL) remains below its previous peaks, hovering near $1 billion.
Why the Price Weakness?
- Market Contagion: APT's decline is largely attributed to the wider market downturn, triggered by a massive $2.10 billion liquidation cascade that hit Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the crypto market.
- Bearish Technicals: Technically, APT broke below a descending wedge pattern in early November, confirming a bearish trend. The price dropped from about $3.06 to $2.60.
- Weak Buying Pressure: While the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) was mildly positive, it suggested only weak buying pressure.
- Fading Seller Momentum: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicated that seller momentum was starting to fade, but overall market activity remained muted.
Derivatives Market Shows Heavy Shorting
- Shorts Outweigh Longs: The decline's source is further evident in the derivatives market, where over $6.54 million in leveraged shorts (bets on the price going down) were placed, significantly outweighing the $3.81 million in cumulative longs.
- Key Resistance Levels: To signal a pause in the decline, APT needs to regain the $3 level. A clear move above $4 is necessary to fundamentally shift the market sentiment.
Liquidity Hints at an Upside Target
- Liquidity Concentration Above: A look at the Liquidation Heatmap shows a significant concentration of liquidity around the $2.80 area, with cumulative orders exceeding $1 million.
- Potential Upward Move: This suggests that if the price were to follow the path of high liquidity (a common market dynamic), it would be more likely to target the upside ($2.80 and higher) than to continue dropping.
- Short-Term Floor: The regions below $2.60 show less liquidity concentration, which could indicate a short-term pause in any further breakdown.
In summary, APT's price remains weak and confined in a downward structure, but there are early technical signs that selling pressure is easing and liquidity suggests a potential bounce toward the $2.80 level. The market, however, remains bearish until key resistance levels are converted into support.
November 2025, Cryptoniteuae