The ASTER token has seen a significant price increase, rising over 8% today and 12% this week, successfully breaking out of a bullish "falling wedge" pattern. However, despite the sharp jump, the article highlights several warning signs that suggest the upward move might not continue immediately:
- Momentum Divergences:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a hidden bearish divergence (price made a lower high, but RSI made a higher high). This indicates underlying buying pressure isn't translating into equivalent price movement and typically warns of a pullback.
- The Money Flow Index (MFI) also shows a divergence (price formed a higher low, but MFI formed a lower low), suggesting that dip buying is weakening.
- Both indicators imply that while the breakout occurred, the strength needed to confirm a sustained rally is currently lacking.
- Heavy Long Positioning:
- The liquidation map shows that long liquidation leverage ($25.86 million) is more than four times greater than short liquidation leverage ($6.06 million) on Binance.
- This long-biased leverage makes the price highly vulnerable. If the price dips, forced selling from these liquidations could accelerate a sharp decline.
- Key Price Levels:
- Confirmation Level: A daily candle close above $1.28 is required to invalidate the divergences and confirm the breakout's strength, opening the path toward $1.59.
- Support/Pullback Levels:
- If a pullback occurs, $1.09 is the first key defense level to keep the drop limited to a simple correction.
- Losing $1.09 could lead to a drop to $0.99, where large long liquidation clusters are positioned, potentially accelerating the decline.
In summary, the ASTER breakout is active, but the market shows tension. The move is built on aggressive positioning with weak underlying momentum. The critical factor is whether ASTER can confirm its strength by closing above $1.28 or if the brewing divergences and heavy long leverage trigger a pullback first.
November 2025, Cryptoniteuae