Ethereum (ETH) is showing mixed signals, with a 3.5% gain over the past week suggesting a small recovery, but a daily loss of over 2% indicating ongoing selling pressure. This combination led to a failed breakout attempt on October 27th.
The primary reasons for the failure point to cooling demand from active investors:
- Slowing Accumulation: The holder accumulation ratio (wallets increasing vs. cutting holdings) dropped slightly from a 3-month peak. This suggests traders are turning cautious and are less aggressively adding to their ETH positions as the price rises.
- Reduced Outflows from Exchanges: The amount of ETH leaving exchanges has narrowed by 43% between October 15 and October 27. When outflows shrink, it usually means holders are keeping more ETH on exchanges, a common sign of rising short-term selling interest.
A Supply Wall Caps the Price
A major hurdle for ETH's price is a strong supply cluster (a zone where many coins were last bought) located between $4,283 and $4,326. This zone holds about 1.34 million ETH and overlaps with the $4,254–$4,395 resistance range. Prior buyers in this area are likely selling to take profits whenever the price nears it, consistently adding downward pressure and capping the rally. Ethereum will likely continue to struggle until it can firmly clear this wall.
The Technical Setup Remains Balanced
Despite the recent rejection, Ethereum is still trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern that has been in place since October 7.
- Bullish Scenario: To regain upward momentum, the price needs a firm close above the triangle's upper boundary and to hold that move. This would open a path to challenge and break the critical resistance zone of $4,254, followed by $4,395 (a nearly 7% rise from current levels).
- Bullish Undercurrent: The Smart Money Index—which tracks historically high-performing wallets—has been making higher lows since October 22. This signals that these sophisticated investors are quietly accumulating, showing confidence in a near-term rebound.
- Bearish Scenario: The bullish outlook would be defeated if the price falls below $3,918, which would expose the next support level at $3,711.
In essence, slowing retail demand and a major supply cluster prevented the recent breakout, but the technical structure remains intact, and "smart money" accumulation suggests an eventual push higher is still likely.
October 2025, Cryptoniteuae