Ethereum Price Holds Support, Eyes $2,538 Breakout as ETF Flows Strengthen

Ethereum’s price continues to respect its intraday floor near $2,414 and $2,398, suggesting sellers are losing steam at those levels. On the upside, ETH is edging toward the $2,518 pivot, which has already rejected two breakout attempts this month.

Support & Resistance Map

• Immediate resistance: $2,518, then $2,538. A decisive daily close above this zone could open the path toward the next milestone around $2,608.
• Key support: $2,440 is the first line of defense, followed by stronger levels at $2,414 and $2,398. A close below $2,398 would likely rekindle bearish momentum.

Momentum indicators also reflect this tug-of-war. The MACD histogram has swung from deeply negative to near-neutral readings, hinting at fading bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the RSI has recovered from recent lows to just below the 50 level, suggesting a balanced market poised to shift with the next volume surge. Exponential moving averages are compressing, and a 9-day/20-day bullish crossover is within reach if ETH can sustain levels above $2,500 for a couple of sessions.

Hougan’s $10B ETF Forecast: A Catalyst in Play?

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, believes fresh institutional demand could act as the catalyst ETH needs. In a recent note, Hougan revealed Ethereum ETFs attracted $1.17 billion in inflows in June and forecast that these could “accelerate significantly in H2,” potentially hitting $10 billion in the coming months.

“The combination of stablecoins and tokenized stocks migrating to Ethereum is an easy-to-grasp narrative for traditional investors,” Hougan wrote on X, describing Ethereum as the settlement layer for the next era of financial innovation.

Such an influx would mirror the Bitcoin ETF boom earlier this year, dramatically tightening ETH supply on exchanges and reinforcing any technical breakout.

Trading Playbook: Entries & Exits

Long Bias:

• Wait for a clean break and daily close above $2,538 with rising volume.
• Consider $2,607–$2,610 as a first profit zone.
• Place stop-losses just below $2,440 in case of a failed breakout.

Short Bias:

• If ETH fails again around $2,518–$2,538 and momentum indicators roll over, a contrarian setup could target a retracement to $2,414.
• Use tight stops above $2,560 to manage risk.

In both directions, keep an eye on Ethereum ETF flow data, as confirmation of Hougan’s institutional thesis could quickly invalidate bearish scenarios.

Ethereum Outlook: Technicals + Narrative

The current chart paints a picture of a market in equilibrium, waiting for a spark. Hougan’s bullish ETF inflow thesis adds a compelling narrative that could tip the scales. If institutional cash accelerates into Ethereum products, the $2,538 ceiling might transform into a springboard — potentially launching ETH toward the mid-$2,600s and beyond.

July 2025, Cryptoniteuae