Gold Nears All-Time High as Historic Bitcoin Divergence Signals Potential Turning Point

Gold prices continued their upward momentum on Tuesday, trading at $4,305 per ounce, placing the safe-haven asset within striking distance of its October all-time high of $4,381. This rally is driven by a strong flight to safety among investors navigating uncertain monetary policy and seeking hedges against persistent inflation.

The momentum for bullion is reinforced by a weaker US dollar, currently near a two-month low during the Asian session, and high expectations for further monetary easing. Markets are currently pricing in a 76% chance of another Federal Reserve rate cut in January. Gold has surged more than 64% year-to-date, marking its best annual performance since 1979, fueled by rate cuts, steady central bank buying, and sustained inflows into gold-backed ETFs.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Historic Divergence

In contrast to gold's stellar performance, Bitcoin is hovering around $86,000 following a sharp selloff on Monday that triggered $200 million in long liquidations. The leading cryptocurrency remains approximately 30% below its October peak of $126,210.This widening gap is attracting significant market analysis:

• Risk Asset vs. Safe-Haven: Gold acts as a traditional safe-haven in turbulent times, while Bitcoin frequently trades like a risk asset, suffering outflows when stability is sought.
• Technical Oversold Conditions: Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) against gold has dropped below 30 for only the fourth time in history.
• Key Support Test: Fellow analyst misterrcrypto indicates the BTC/Gold pair is testing a long-term ascending support line for the fourth time since 2019. With a Z-Score of -1.76, the pair is in oversold territory, and prior touches of this support level have historically led to substantial rallies.

Despite these oversold technical signals, the current macroeconomic backdrop, characterized by elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, continues to favor gold. The extent to which investors will rotate from gold into Bitcoin remains a central uncertainty.

Macro Factors and Data Void in Focus

Market attention is now shifting to this week’s US economic data, which has been delayed by a six-week government shutdown.

• Employment Reports: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release a long-awaited combined employment report for October and November on Tuesday.
• Data Gaps: Key details will be missing, including the October unemployment rate, resulting in the first-ever gap in that critical data series.
• Expectations: Economists project a 50,000 increase in payrolls and a 4.5% unemployment rate for November, consistent with a sluggish but stable labor market. Moderate weakness in these figures is expected to strengthen the case for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut last week but signaled a potential pause due to persistent inflation. However, the comments from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who asserted that "prices are now once again stable," have helped maintain the high probability of a January cut.

Technical Outlook and Other Metals

• Bitcoin Options: Options data reveals heavy open interest concentrated around the December 26 expiry, with significant positioning at the $100,000 strike. Analysts have identified a gamma band spanning $86,000 to $110,000, suggesting heightened volatility is likely as traders reposition.
• Silver Rally: Silver continues its spectacular year, having more than doubled with a 121% gain. While pulling back from Friday’s record high of $64.65, the metal remains near historic levels, driven by tightening inventories, strong industrial demand, and its inclusion on the US critical minerals list.

As gold approaches a new high and Bitcoin consolidates near critical support, the coming weeks are pivotal for determining whether the historic divergence between the two assets will be resolved through a market rotation or if the dislocation will deepen.

December 2025, Cryptoniteuae