Date: April 16, 2025
Author: Sarah Ahmed
The cryptocurrency world is reeling from the catastrophic collapse of Mantra’s OM token, which plummeted over 90% in a single day, wiping out more than $5.5 billion in market capitalization. This dramatic event has sent shockwaves through the industry, with analysts and community members now casting a wary eye on other projects, particularly Pi Network. With Pi Network’s price recently dropping 17% to $0.611 amid its transition to Open Mainnet, comparisons to OM’s downfall are inevitable. But is Pi Network truly at risk of a similar collapse, or does its unique structure and community support provide a buffer against such a fate? Let’s explore the factors driving these concerns, the lessons from OM’s crash, and Pi Network’s potential path forward.
The Mantra (OM) Collapse:
A Cautionary TaleMantra’s OM token was once a darling of the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization space, aiming to digitize assets like real estate and commodities on the blockchain. However, on a fateful Sunday evening, OM crashed by 95% within hours, erasing $6 billion in value. Analysts point to several culprits:
The OM incident has been described as a “wake-up call” for the crypto industry, highlighting the need for transparency, robust infrastructure, and stricter regulations. Posts on X echo this sentiment, with users like @Dr_Picoin emphasizing the importance of learning from such failures to avoid repeating them.
Why Pi Network Is Under Scrutiny
Pi Network, known for its mobile-first “tap to earn” mining model, has amassed a staggering 60 million-strong community and claims over 100 million users globally. Despite its popularity, recent developments have drawn parallels to OM’s vulnerabilities, prompting analysts to question whether Pi could be next to falter. Here are the key concerns:
1. Lack of Transparency
The Pi Core Team (PCT) controls over 67 billion tokens—more than half the maximum supply—raising concerns about centralized tokenomics. Community members, including Pi Network Turkey, have criticized the team for slow progress on the Open Mainnet rollout and deviation from decentralized principles. Analysts like Dr. Altcoin have called the PCT’s operations “not transparent,” with some, like Bybit CEO Ben Zhou, even labeling Pi Network a potential scam.On X, users like @sakata_san2023 express frustration, noting that even “scam coins” seem to outperform Pi, reflecting growing distrust. Without clearer communication, Pi risks alienating its community, a factor that exacerbated OM’s collapse.
2. Massive Token Unlocks
Pi Network faces significant token dilution, with 119 million tokens set to be released this month and 1.56 billion over the next 12 months. An upcoming unlock of 188 million tokens in the next 30 days has fueled selling pressure, contributing to a 30% price drop in the last 14 days. OM’s crash was partly driven by sudden market panic, and analysts warn that Pi’s token unlocks could trigger a similar cascade if liquidity isn’t managed carefully.
3. Delayed Exchange Listings
Pi’s closed-loop ecosystem, reliant on unofficial IOUs on lesser-known exchanges, has created a “price illusion” that insulates it from external volatility but limits liquidity. Major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase have yet to list Pi, with some attributing this to the project’s lack of transparency and unverified token burns. Bybit’s Zhou claimed Pi rejected a listing offer, further muddying the waters. OM’s collapse highlighted the dangers of weak exchange support, and Pi’s absence from tier-1 platforms could exacerbate vulnerabilities.
4. Community and Market Sentiment
While Pi boasts a massive community, only 19 million users have completed KYC verification, limiting participation in token transfers. Growing frustration, as seen in posts on X from users like @MMOStars, points to unsustainable KYC processes and a $5 billion valuation that may be inflated. If confidence wanes, sudden withdrawals or sell-offs could mirror OM’s cascading market failure.
Why Pi Network Might Avoid a Collapse
Despite these concerns, Pi Network has strengths that could prevent an OM-style crash, as highlighted by supporters like @piopennetwork on X. Here’s what sets Pi apart:
1. Massive Community Support
Pi’s 60 million pioneers provide a robust user base, unlike OM’s smaller community. This scale offers resilience, as loyal users may buy dips, as seen in recent surges of 50% following Chainlink integration. Historical patterns show Pi rebounding from demand zones, with analysts noting potential for a bullish reversal if buyers step in.
2. Gradual Token Unlocks
Unlike OM’s sudden market shock, Pi’s token releases are staggered, potentially mitigating panic selling. While dilution is a concern, a proposed token burn could offset supply pressure, with analysts suggesting a return to $3 if implemented strategically.
3. Growing Utility
Pi is transitioning from a speculative token to a transactional currency. South Korean skincare retailers and Florida’s Zito Realty now accept Pi Coin, signaling real-world adoption. The Chainlink integration enhances DeFi potential, enabling smart contracts and Web3 services like lending and staking. The Pi Ad Network further boosts developer monetization, strengthening the ecosystem. OM lacked such utility, making Pi’s fundamentals more robust.
4. Technical Resilience
Recent price action shows Pi rebounding 28% to $0.58, with technical indicators like a golden cross and RSI suggesting bullish momentum. Analysts predict a potential climb to $1.87 or even $3 if resistance at $0.75 is breached. While OM ignored warning signs, Pi’s community and developers appear more responsive to market dynamics.
Conclusion:
A Collapse or a Comeback?Pi Network is at a crossroads. While it shares some of OM’s vulnerabilities—centralized control, token dilution, and listing delays—its massive community, growing utility, and gradual unlock schedule provide a buffer against a full collapse. The 17% price drop to $0.611 reflects market jitters, but recent rebounds of up to 50% and technical bullish signals suggest resilience.The OM crash is a stark reminder of crypto’s volatility, but Pi’s fundamentals and community strength position it differently. If the PCT addresses transparency and accelerates exchange listings, Pi could hit $3 or more by mid-2025, as some analysts predict. However, failure to act could erode trust, risking a downward spiral. For now, Pi Network is not “next” to collapse—but it must heed OM’s lessons to secure its future.