Analysts suggest that Stellar (XLM) may be preparing for a spectacular price surge in the fourth quarter of 2025, mirroring its massive rally from 2017. This bullish outlook is supported by a combination of strong on-chain metrics, rising market correlation, and key technical chart patterns.
The Four Bullish Catalysts for XLM
The following signals suggest XLM has the internal strength for a significant price movement:
- Network Activity Hits Yearly Highs: Stellar's "Stellar Operations" metric, which measures real network usage like transfers and DEX trades, has reached its highest level in a year, currently processing over 69 million weekly transactions. This surge is likely fueled by recent institutional partnerships, including the integration of EURC and the launch of PayPal USD on the Stellar network. High activity indicates increasing intrinsic value and user adoption.
- Peak Correlation with BTC and ETH: XLM's price correlation with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has hit an annual peak, with correlations of around 0.75 and 0.7, respectively. This strong alignment is a strategic advantage. If analysts' projections for BTC ($200,000) and ETH ($7,500) in Q4 materialize, XLM is highly likely to follow their upward trend.
- Declining Supply Equality Ratio (SER): The SER, which tracks the distribution of tokens between small and large wallets, has dropped. A sharp decline in this ratio typically indicates a bullish accumulation phase by the network's largest holders (the "smart money"). Historically, this pattern has preceded major XLM rallies.
- Bullish Price Structure: From a technical analysis perspective, XLM's weekly chart structure strongly resembles the setup before its Q4 2017 surge. XLM has recently broken out of a long-term descending wedge, a pattern that suggests the price is breaking free from a prolonged downtrend. It has also pierced a multi-month downtrend line, setting the stage for a potential upward move following a retest of that level.
Market Impact and Caveats
These strong internal catalysts suggest that XLM could breach heavy resistance levels and aim for targets up to $0.29 or higher, should a 20% rally materialize, finally breaking the current trading range.
However, analysts caution that external factors, such as broader macroeconomic headwinds (including recession fears and shifts in monetary policy across Europe and Japan), could still complicate price movements in the coming months.
October 2025, Cryptoniteuae