Investment bank Jefferies suggests that the recent significant surge in gold prices cannot be fully explained by traditional market factors. Instead, they point to Tether, the issuer of the largest stablecoin (USDT), as a major new source of demand.
Key Findings on Tether's Gold Accumulation:
- Substantial Holdings: Based on attestation data and on-chain activity, Jefferies analysts, led by Andrew Moss, estimate Tether held at least 116 tons of gold by the end of the third quarter.
- USDT Backing: Approximately 104 tons were backing the USDT stablecoin (worth about $13.67 billion).
- XAUt Backing: About 12 tons were backing Tether's gold token, XAUt.
- Scale of Accumulation: This level of holding makes Tether the world's largest non-sovereign holder of gold, placing it on par with some smaller central banks.
- Pace of Buying: The accumulation rate is notable, with roughly 26 tons acquired in Q3 alone. This is equivalent to about 2% of the global gold demand during that quarter.
- Market Impact: While not overwhelming central bank flows, Jefferies believes this consistent buying likely tightened near-term gold supply and boosted overall bullish sentiment, contributing to the price rally (which has seen gold rise more than 50% this year to around $4,080 per ounce).
Future Outlook and Strategy:
- Continued Buying Expected: Analysts anticipate Tether will continue accumulating gold, maintaining it as approximately 7% of its total reserves as USDT grows.
- Profit Deployment: The report calculates that if Tether deploys even half of its projected $15 billion profit in 2025 into bullion, it could add nearly 60 tons annually.
- Broader Strategy: Tether’s gold strategy is further evidenced by:
- Investing over $300 million this year in gold royalty and streaming companies.
- Hiring two top metals traders from HSBC, suggesting the gold push is accelerating.
The report briefly notes that Tether’s planned, GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin, USAT, will not require gold reserves, leaving the long-term impact on overall gold demand uncertain.
November 2025, Cryptoniteuae