Whale Selling and Bearish Technicals Cloud XRP's ETF Outlook

The XRP token is currently facing intense downward pressure driven by sustained selling from large holders, known as whales, alongside bearish signals from technical analysis. This selling pressure is occurring while the market anticipates a potential spot XRP ETF approval which could otherwise serve as a bullish catalyst.

Whale Activity Escalates Sell Pressure

Whales, defined as wallets holding over 1,000 XRP, have been offloading approximately $50 million worth of XRP daily, a trend evident since early 2024 according to the 30-day moving average of whale flow data. This continuous net outflow creates significant selling pressure and has a negative impact on overall market sentiment. Analysts are concerned that this persistent distribution could accelerate the current downtrend unless a strong bullish reversal occurs, potentially forcing smaller investors to also sell.

Technical Warnings Clash with ETF Hopes

Despite the anticipation for a bullish event, technical indicators suggest further losses. Noted chart analyst Peter Brandt has identified XRP as a "short candidate," contingent on the completion of a descending triangle pattern on the chart.

• A descending triangle is typically a bearish pattern that indicates further downside, although it can be a reversal pattern if the price holds the lower support line.
• Brandt's analysis warns of sharper declines if the price breaks below the descending triangle's identified support level.

Conversely, there's speculation, particularly from commentators like "Steph is Crypto," that the U.S. SEC could approve a spot XRP ETF by October 18. While this news could ignite a rally, some analysts caution it might lead to a "sell-the-news" event, where whales take the opportunity to exit their positions, leading to a quick pullback.

Regulatory Clarity Fuels Long-Term ETF Optimism

While immediate approval faces regulatory hurdles according to experts, the long-term outlook for an XRP ETF remains overwhelmingly positive.

• Prediction market Polymarket shows bettors assigning a near-certain probability (above 99%) that the SEC will approve an XRP ETF in 2025.
• This strong confidence is largely fueled by recent legal clarity surrounding Ripple's regulatory status and a generally more favorable environment for crypto regulation in the US.

Currently, XRP is trading at $2.83, reflecting a minor decline over the last 24 hours. The coming weeks are considered pivotal, with the price's direction dependent on either a fundamental development, like an ETF approval, or the continuation of large-scale whale selling.

October 2025, Cryptoniteuae