15 Apr

After the halving, an analyst predicts that Bitcoin miner sales might total up to $5 billion over four to six months.

A market analyst believes that similar to past cycles, there may be a significant withdrawal of Bitcoin BTC from miners in the months after the halving.

According to estimates made by Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, in an April 13 analyst note, Bitcoin miners may liquidate $5 billion in BTC following the halving.

Because Bitcoin has historically declined after halvings, he continued, "The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months."

According to Thielen, the same might occur again, with cryptocurrency markets perhaps seeing "a significant challenge in a six-month'summer' lull."

Within the $9,000 to $11,500 band, bitcoin values stayed stable in the five months that followed the 2020 halving.

This year, the halving is scheduled for April 20, only six days away. If history repeats, markets might not see a notable upward trajectory until approximately October.

He added that before the halving, miners frequently accumulate Bitcoin, "causing a supply/demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in Bitcoin prices."

This has already happened, with the price of Bitcoin rising 74% in 2024 to an all-time high of $73,734 on March 14 before falling to less than $63,000 in the middle of April.

According to Thielen, altcoins in particular might be the most negatively impacted by this scenario. Over the past week, a lot of them have been sharply declining, and several are still far from reaching their 2021 peaks.

Marathon, the biggest Bitcoin miner in the world, presumably amassed an inventory "that will likely be gradually sold after the halving to prevent a revenue cliff from occurring," according to Thielen's theory.

Given that Marathon (now) produces 28–30 BTC daily, this might mean that, in addition to the BTC they produce—which would be 14–15 BTC per day after the halving—133 days of additional supply would reach the market.

"Other miners will probably use a similar approach to gradually sell off a portion of their inventory." 

The study concluded that "this could result in a maximum of $104 million of BTC selling per day – reversing the supply/demand imbalance that caused BTC to rally pre-halving" if all miners employ a similar plan to sell inventory after the halving.

The CEO of Marathon, Peter Thiel, stated last week that the company needs to break even at roughly $46,000 per Bitcoin to continue making money after the halving. He also predicted that there won't likely be any notable price changes in the six months that follow the event.

April 2024, Cryptoniteuae

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